The Max Pain effect is the tendency for a stock’s price to gravitate towards this number as we approach the expiration date. Options officially expire the day after the third Friday of the month. Apple (AAPL) July 2008 options expired on July 18 after the closing bell. The calculated Max Pain value for AAPL is 160.
Update: AAPL closed at 165.15 on July 18.
Note: The strike pegger is more accurate for most major indexes and stocks which have large option volume, relatively low float, and have not experienced a significant and abrupt price move. The Volatility Skew, the Put/Call Ratio, and the Strike Peg should all be evaluated. Correct interpretation of the Volatility Skew is most valuable, since it effects the accuracy of the Put/Call Ratio and the Strike Peg.
Ref: http://www.optionistics.com/i/strike_pegger
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